A little over a month ago, my friend Matt Soldano brought up the idea of the Yankees signing Randy Winn to become their left fielder. I thought it could not have been a worse move. He will be 36 next year, and is coming off of a season in which he hit .262 with only two home runs; not to mention a .318 OB% and a .158 BA vs. lefties. I didn't seem him as much of an upgrade over Brett Gardner, since he would be making around $2-3 mil, while Gardner will make around $500,000. Plus, the Yankees do not have many holes, but the one problem they can face is not having a bench hitter who bats right handed and can hit lefty pitchers, hopefully with some power.
Then, after weeks of rumors involving guys such as Marcus Thames, Rocco Baldelli, and Reed Johnson, the Yankees signed Randy Winn to a one year deal for $2 mil. At first, I hated the deal. I didn't think it was worth it and I thought it was the first bad move the Yankees made this offseason. I thought they should have spent that money on a guy who can hit lefties, and they didn't.
But then time went on, some things were reported and I did some further investigation, and because of that, I will admit that I was wrong. This is a good signing and there are many reasons why.
First off, according to multiple sources, Brian Cashman believes he can get Thames or Baldelli on a minor league contract (not to mention Jamie Hoffman killed lefties at AAA last year, but I would prefer a more established hitter). For me, this is the key. If Gardner fails to hit lefties, Granderson doesn't improve against lefties, and Winn hits vs. lefties like he did last year, the Yankees are going to be lost the approximately 33% of the time they face lefties during the regular season.
Secondly, as mentioned before, Randy Winn hit .158 vs. lefties last year, but his BABIP was an astoundingly bad .178. That is literally almost physically impossible to replicate, and just like Nick Swisher coming into 2009, Randy Winn is almost guaranteed to have somewhat of a bounce back year in 2010. Mark my words, it is almost a guarantee.
When you look past last year, I think people don't realize (especially myself), just how good of a player Randy Winn is. Throughout his career he has hit both lefties and righties well, with a career BA vs. lefties of .280 and .289 vs. righties, leading to a career BA of .286. If you don't include last year, Winn has had double digit home runs in every year since 2002 and even including last year, he has had double digit steals in every year since 2001.
Finally, Winn can play all three OF positions, and except for CF, he can play all of them well. His career UZR/150 for center is -1.3, slightly below average, but in recent years it has been as bad as -13. His rates for left in his career are 3.0 and in right it is 16.4. This will be great for Girardi in late and close games, especially come playoff time. Even though he should not step foot near center field anymore, he is still considered a center fielder and Girardi can have three center fielders in the outfield at the same time late in games; I am sure the pitchers won't mind that at all.
Winn is not going to be the reason the Yankees win or lose the World Series, and while I still prefer Brett Gardner to be the everyday starter, if there is a platoon or if Winn starts, he is still only a $2 mil player. Things need to happen for this to be a solid addition, such as adding a right handed bat or hoping Jamie Hoffman is able to stick in the majors, as well as Winn having a rebound from last season, and based on that horrific BABIP, some sort of rebound in sure to happen.
Look at it this way, Winn is better than Melky, will be a part time player like Melky always should have been, and will be making $1.3 mil less.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Mikey Joy as always an excellent analysis and you have convinced me. I don't what half those initials mean but I was impressed.
ReplyDeletePOPPA D
Another great one pulled out from the depths of nowhere. Great job Mike as always
ReplyDelete